In a surprising twist, former President Donald Trump’s legal team faced a significant setback due to a recent court decision that many initially misinterpreted as a victory. The confusion stemmed from Judge Juan Merchan’s decision to delay Trump’s sentencing for his 34 felony counts in New York until two days before Thanksgiving. While some Trump supporters were quick to claim this was a win, legal experts like Michael Popok of the “Legal AF” podcast argue otherwise. Upon closer examination, it becomes evident that this delay only complicates Trump’s situation further, creating additional challenges for his defense and campaign.

What Trump really sought was not a mere delay in sentencing but a ruling on the question of immunity stemming from a recent Supreme Court decision. Trump hoped the judge would rule on this immunity issue, giving him the ability to appeal the ruling and, ultimately, take the case to the United States Supreme Court before the 2024 election. Such a path would provide an opportunity for Trump to clear his name before voters head to the polls. However, Judge Merchan’s decision to delay not only the sentencing but also any ruling on immunity means that Trump is left with no immediate avenue to appeal. This leaves Trump in a precarious position where the cloud of a conviction looms large over his campaign, with little recourse to change that before the election.

The strategic implications of this delay are significant. Without a sentence to appeal, Trump’s legal team is unable to challenge the ruling at the appellate or federal level. Moreover, delaying the sentencing until after the election ensures that the case remains a major topic of public discourse, hanging over Trump throughout the election period. As Popok noted, this decision effectively leaves a “scarlet letter” on Trump, branding him as a convicted felon without the ability to quickly clear his name. For Trump, this is a worst-case scenario: a legal battle that lingers without resolution, potentially hurting his chances with voters who may be swayed by his criminal conviction.

One of the more striking aspects of this decision is the timing of the sentencing—set for just two days before Thanksgiving. Popok humorously imagined the Trump family Thanksgiving being overshadowed by the looming sentencing, suggesting that this moment could be deeply embarrassing for the former president. Moreover, the judge’s decision signals that a prison sentence may be on the horizon for Trump, a significant blow to any aspirations of political redemption.

Another crucial point Popok raised is that Trump cannot rely on a presidential pardon to escape state-level convictions. Even if Trump were to return to the White House, he would not have the power to pardon himself for state crimes. Federal pardons, such as the one issued by Gerald Ford to Richard Nixon, apply only to federal offenses. This limitation severely restricts Trump’s legal options, as New York Governor Kathy Hochul, a Democrat, is unlikely to offer clemency. Trump’s legal team has tried to drag the case into federal court, hoping for more favorable outcomes, but as of now, that strategy appears to have stalled.

Judge Merchan’s decision also has broader political implications. By postponing both the immunity ruling and the sentencing, the judge avoids being accused of influencing the 2024 election with a pre-election decision. Yet, he ensures that Trump’s legal troubles will remain in the public eye throughout the campaign. This move seems calculated to maintain judicial neutrality while allowing the legal process to continue without undue delay once the election is over.

Ultimately, this decision represents a masterstroke by the court, leaving Trump in a legal bind. He cannot appeal the conviction yet, nor can he address the immunity issue in court. His legal team’s efforts to stall the process have backfired, leaving Trump with fewer options and more uncertainty. For a man seeking to return to the highest office in the land, this ongoing legal battle is an unwelcome distraction that threatens to derail his political ambitions.

As Trump’s legal and political struggles continue to unfold, this case highlights the complex intersection of law and politics. While Trump may have hoped for a quick resolution that would allow him to focus on his 2024 campaign, the court’s decision has ensured that his legal challenges will remain front and center. With a potential prison sentence on the horizon and no immediate path to overturn his conviction, Trump faces an uphill battle as both a defendant and a presidential candidate.