Election forecaster who correctly called the 2020 result makes shock ‘blowout’ claim in Trump-Harris race

A data scientist who predicted the outcome of the 2020 presidential election has anticipated a landslide for Democratic nominee Kamala Harris, in a blow to former president Donald Trump‘s hopes to reclaim the White House.

Northwestern University data scientist Thomas Miller said that Harris will knock Trump in a landslide election, telling  Fortune Magazine: ‘It’s gone from a drastic landslide in Trump’s direction to a drastic landslide for Harris’.

Miller first gained attention after he accurately predicted the 2020 presidential election by unconventionally using betting markets rather than traditional polls to forecast the outcome.

He achieved this by developing a model, which is based on 16 presidential elections, that converted betting prices into the popular vote and Electoral College projections.

This model shows a narrow correlation between betting odds and the anticipated popular vote.

Vice President Kamala Harris is taking the lead from former President Donald Trump across swing states, a new poll suggests

As of September, Miller’s model showed Harris would have 55% of the popular vote, which would translate into a significant lead in the Electoral College.

Miller’s analysis also showed that support for Harris has expanded in recent months, despite the fact that Trump had taken the lead in June.

But there has been a huge swing from when president Joe Biden was still nominee, as the odds have shifted drastically.

His prediction came as the latest poll by Quinnipiac Universisty suggested that Harris is pulling ahead in key swing states.

The survey found that Harris has a six-point lead in Pennsylvania – 51 per cent to 45 percent – a state that has been billed as a potential decider in the up-coming election in November.

In Michigan, meanwhile, the poll suggests Trump is behind Harris by 5 points, with the vice president winning the support of 50 percent of voters, while the Republican presidential candidate is backed by 45 percent.

As for Wisconsin, Harris is narrowly ahead of Trump with 48% of voter support compared to 47%, the poll said.

Neither candidate is likely to win the presidential election while losing to all three swing states, making the latest poll grim reading for Trump and his campaign.

Trump won all three so-called ‘blue wall’ states over Democrat Hillary Clinton in 2016, delivering him an Electoral College victory. Meanwhile in 2020, President Joe Biden won them back to the Democratic column.

By narrow margins, voters in the three swing states says Trump is the better leader on the economy and immigration but Harris is the far-and-away leader on the issue of abortion.

According to a recent poll by Quinnipiac University, Donald Trump is behind Harris in swing states Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin

Data scientist Thomas Miller believes Harris will win in a landslide this November, after having accurately predicted the outcome of the 2020 presidential race

US Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris (R) shakes hands with former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump during a presidential debate at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, on September 10, 2024

As of September, Miller’s model showed Harris would have 55% of the popular vote, which would translate into a significant lead in the Electoral Colleg

In Pennsylvania, 57 percent say Harris would do a better job handling the issue of abortion, compared to 38 percent who said Trump.

In Michigan it’s 53 percent for Harris and 42 percent for Trump and in Wisconsin 53 percent also said Harris, while 40 percent said Trump.

The states are often referred to as the ‘blue wall’ because of their significance to democrat candidates.

This comes after Harris received an endorsement last week from megastar Taylor Swift, who announced her support for the vice president just moments after the presidential debate.

The singer’s bombshell announcement could have huge ramifications on the momentum with less than eight weeks until election day.